HKNIC - How long will reserves last
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How long will reserves last
If we know the proven reserves and the rate of usage of a certain energy resource, it requires only simple arithmetic to work out how long the energy resource will last.
As mentioned, however, this simple calculation ignores the fact that the dwindling of proven reserves will drive an exploration effort which, before the actual exhaustion of the energy resource, will help restore the balance. It also ignores the fact that even if we try to move away from the "business as usual" mentality of energy consumption, demand will most likely still increase with time. The calculation is also complicated by the fact that a shortage of one resource will make people use its alternatives, reducing the durability of those alternatives. How long will reserves last
                                                                 1 Exajoule (EJ) = 1 X 109 GJ
                                                                                         = 1 X 1018 J
If we take the view that proven reserves will not increase, but that annual consumption will level out at 2030 at 70% above the 2003 rate, non-renewable energy will economically last for less than 300 years.

While the exhaustion of fossil fuels is likely to be a more lengthy process than that indicated by the above simple arithmetic, the fact is that it will undoubtedly happen at some time in the future. Indeed it is already happening within some regions of the world.
Regional Oil Proven reserves

How long will reserves last 

Source: BP 2014

Regional Gas Proven reserves

How long will reserves last 

Source: BP 2014